Reduced earnings outlook for 2022
Covestro reduces its forecast for EBITDA, free operating cash flow (FOCF), return on capital employed over weighted average cost of capital (ROCE over WACC) and greenhouse gas emissions, measured via CO2 equivalents, for fiscal year 2022. This is a consequence of a recent significant further increase in energy costs and a further weakening global economy.
Covestro adjusts its forecast for fiscal year 2022 as follows:
- EBITDA is expected to be between EUR 1,700 million and EUR 2,200 million. The previous forecast projected EBITDA between EUR 2,000 million and EUR 2,500 million. The consensus expected this figure to be EUR 2,342 million.
- Free operating cash flow (FOCF) is expected to be between EUR 0 million and EUR 500 million. The previous forecast projected FOCF between EUR 400 million and EUR 900 million. The consensus expected this figure to be EUR 598 million.
- Return on capital employed over weighted average cost of capital (ROCE over WACC) is expected to be between -2 and +2 percentage points. The previous forecast projected ROCE over WACC between +1 and +5 percentage points.
- Greenhouse gas emissions, measured via CO2 equivalents, are expected to be between 5.3 million tons and 5.8 million tons. The previous forecast projected greenhouse gas emissions between 5.5 million tons and 6.0 million tons.
In the second quarter 2022, Covestro EBITDA was EUR 547 million, which is slightly above the previous forecast between EUR 430 million and EUR 530 million. This was supported by a faster than expected normalization of the lockdown-burdened supply chain situation in China. The consensus expected this figure to be EUR 509 million. Second quarter 2022 FOCF was EUR -462 million. This included the bonus pay-out for the fiscal year 2021 of EUR 475 Mio.
Third quarter 2022 EBITDA is expected to be between EUR 300 million and EUR 400 million.
The financial report for the second quarter 2022 will be published on August 2, 2022.
Capital market expectations are based on the average values of the latest consensus estimates of financial analysts, recently published by Vara Research on July 12, 2022.
